With 2010′s arrival, everybody is getting all hyped up about predictions. Well, we can’t really afford those expensive crystal balls that tell the future, so we decided to base our predictions on good old hard math.
First of all, the App Store’s exponential growth doesn’t seem to have an end. This December, we witnessed 24,921 new apps appear in the App Store, which represents an average of 830.7 apps approved per day (including weekends and holidays).
To see what we can expect from 2010, we made some projections based on the App Store’s data since its launch (AppAdvice’s webmaster majored in math, how convenient). If the App Store continues growing exactly at the same pace, at this same time next year, we’ll be enjoying exactly 342,184 apps.
It’s a little more than what was announced by IDC (300,000), but it’s backed up.
Can Apple take that much? It seems like they can. In December, Apple managed to approve 830 apps per day, and apps didn’t wait more than 4 or 5 days on average from their submission to their publication. If the growth is steady, this rate of submission won’t be exceeded in 2010, which means that the delay will probably be reduced even more.
Good news right?
If you’re curious, our equation is:
58.17*x^2 -164.4*x +236 (for games)
+ 342.8*x^2 -2100*x +3816 (other apps)
with x being the month, this January is month 21.