The PC market share leaders are HP, Acer and Dell. Apple, with its line of MacBooks, iMacs and Mac Pros is number seven on the current list. However, Barclays Capital has played around with the share numbers and the results are interesting:
When Apple’s iPad is added to the PC mix, Apple shoots up to number four, overtaking Lenovo, Toshiba and ASUS. When looking ahead at estimates, Barclays believes Apple could overtake Dell and move into the number three spot within the next year or two. Not bad when you consider the device giving Apple the bump wasn't even released until last spring.
Of course, the iPad is generally considered a tablet PC by the computer industry; an entirely different category. Perhaps it shouldn’t be? After all, with new apps being released for it, the iPad's abilities are getting closer to that of a PC everyday. But, if you're Apple, does it really matter which category the iPad falls into? Does it matter to Apple shareholders who have seen Apple's price-per-share climb $140 in 52 weeks (to $259)? Of course not, on both points.
Other findings released by Barclays include these little nuggets:
- Tablet computers, a category that didn’t really exist until this spring, will be here to stay;
- Apple (AAPL) is going to own most of that market for years to come;
- This is yet more bad news for Microsoft (MSFT) and its Windows franchise, as well as PC manufacturers like Dell, in particular.
Plus, Barclays predicts:
- That consumers will buy 15 million tablets this year and 28 million in 2011, and that Apple will hold onto a 75 percent market share next year;
- That the rise of tablets will indeed cut into PC sales, primarily in the netbook/notebook market–enough that Barclays is cutting its PC sales growth estimate for 2010 from 21 percent to 19 percent (still, as Steve Ballmer would say, 19 percent!).
What I find striking is this: First, with the iPad (like the iPod before it), Apple has created a completely new technology category, which they then will dominate. Second, as with all of its creations, Apple gains market share while Windows-based hardware makers continue to see flat or falling sales.
