Sometime later this year, the total number of Apple devices will equal the number of Windows PCs. This is the conclusion drawn by Horace Dediu in his new analysis, “When Apple reached parity with Windows.”
The Asymco analyst makes this claim by adding the number of Mac and iOS devices, and comparing this to the number of Windows PCs. Based on this, Dediu notes in 2013, there were only 1.18 times more Windows PCs than Apple devices.
This doesn’t exactly tell the whole story, which Dediu freely admits.
This analysis, for example, is not an attempt to do a comparison between two companies. If it was, Dediu would have included the number of Windows Phones and tablets, and Xbox devices to the list. Instead, it’s a comparison between Windows PCs and several other products.
As Dediu notes in the comments section of the article:
The purpose of the comparison is to understand the basis for decision making which led to the advantage enjoyed by Windows and a discussion on whether the basis of decision making has shifted and whether it can shift yet again. Framing Xbox and Windows Phones into the same discussion reduces our ability to understand the causes for the success of Windows.
His bottom line: The trend isn’t in Microsoft’s favor, and hasn’t been for many years.
I believe Dediu is onto something here, although others may disagree. The world has been moving away from stationary devices for many years. Microsoft’s dominance has weakened as a result.
What say you?
See also: PC Shipments Continue To Drop Thanks To Tablets, At Last: Apple, Samsung CEOs Both Agree To Patent Dispute Mediation, and Apple To Announce Holiday Performance With Q1 2014 Financial Results On Jan. 27.