Now the title is a bit premature and overstated as not every Android device will be gone today, but this is officially the beginning of the end of Android as long as Google keeps fooling around. You may think that this is totally off base especially given the fact that in the 4th quarter of 2010 Android is the 2nd leading Smartphone platform out there just behind RIM, and sitting ahead of iOS. In fact in 2010 Android had an astounding 888.8 percent year over year growth.
The numbers keep rolling in for Android which has an estimated 53 percent share of the smart phone market, but the thing is these numbers, are just part of the equation. There’s no doubt Google has done a great job in getting their software out to any and all manufacturers that they can, regardless of network. Of all these 90 plus handsets that are shipped with Android none are as popular as the iPhone 4 which is the top selling mobile phone in the US.
The iPhone was able to do this despite being on only one US carrier, and only the 2nd largest network, which officially comes to an end today 2/10/11. Now the largest US mobile carrier Verizon with 101.1 million subscribers gets the iPhone, and a majority of those users are, at the very least, interested in switching. Not only that, but there are a number of states classified as rural area where AT&T is spotty at best, and will only use Verizon, and are excited for the iPhone.
The iPhone has become main stream, so it’s no longer just for Apple lovers. In stores Android devices still need to be sold and have their differences highlighted while people come in asking for the iPhone. Apple has gained a lot of momentum with the iPhone, but left the door wide open with their exclusivity deal for anyone else to enter the market to supply an operating system to other networks and manufacturers.
Google barged through that door, and has done a masterful job in marketing, and proliferating the manufacturers and market. Google has also been able to use the iPhone to its advantage by allowing people who don’t want to use AT&T, or more poignant those who don’t want to leave Verizon, a seemingly quality alternative. It seems carriers and Google alike are saying, it’s just like the iPhone, but on the network you want.
A carrier is a big choice in the US, and Verizon plays the most important role as many Americans swear by it. Now the iPhone is a choice on Verizon, and the US market will most likely
mirror other European countries with multiple iPhone carriers. In those countries, when choice is there, the iPhone takes the lead and the strong footing Android has in the US is because the iPhone was stuck on AT&T.
Having 90+ devices as compared to four models of the iPhone 4 & 3GS combined creates the difference in market share. The iPhone 4 is the top selling, and also leads every single Android phone in customer satisfaction. The thing is that the hardware manufacturers like HTC, Motorola, Samsung, and LG are doing a great job including amazing specs like dual core, huge memory, and big screens.
Manufacturers will keep coming out with great hardware with some of it better than the current generation Apple iPhone. If you can’t use the hardware differences, than is there really a difference at all? The Android operating system doesn’t fully take advantage of the hardware, for example no major differences between the Atrix and Droid so it’s great to brag about, but you can’t really use it.
The customer satisfaction is lower than iOS not because of the hardware, and that only leaves one thing. Now many Verizon users have got a taste of Android, and it wasn’t so sweet. Most users wanted the capabilities of an iPhone on Verizon, and settled with an Android device. Most of the budget of the Android marketing blitz was backed by Verizon which has now put all that effort into the iPhone.
Now consumers no longer have to settle; whether they are new or existing subscribers. The iPhone 4 on Verizon is just the beginning of the end, and Android will really be pushed to the brink with the iPhone 5. Based on the release schedule the iPhone 5 should be available this summer which syncs in time with the expiration of many Android device contracts on Verizon. The Android device with the most number of units sold of all time is the original Droid which was released November 2009, and I wonder what will happen November 2011 with an iPhone 5 on Verizon. In fact summer seems to have a lot of Verizon Android contracts expiring just in time for the iPhone 5.
If the Verizon record sales of the iPhone 4 on the first pre-order day are any indication, the iPhone 4, and subsequent 5 are going to be gigantic. It’s not a matter of if, but how many iPhones will sell, and there are only so many subscribers, so the real question is what is it going to displace. Android is the current top OS in smart phones, so that looks to be the answer.
Android itself takes it’s name from a robotic entity resembling a human being, and the most well known incarnation is Data from Star Trek: The Next Generation. What happened to Google’s Android? Through the constant pulling in multiple directions by manufacturers it has left it in a weird state. Android seems to be more like Frankenstein’s monster than Data.
Android OS is a good operating system, but it’s not great, and neither is iOS for that matter. The problem is that Android just seems to be a knock off of iOS trying to mimic it in the best ways, and then does a few things different like live widgets and Flash. Google lets any manufacturer use Android, but doesn’t work with them, and that’s where battery life, and not taking advantage of the hardware come into play.
It’s not as much as Android is dead, is that the current way Google uses Android is dead. Google needs to change their whole approach to Android because while it worked to gain market share, and it’s not going to work to keep it. Android needs to be different rather than feeling like a copy, kind of like what Windows Phone 7 does, or the new HP Pre 3.
Manufacturers will keep using Android, but more consumers will have the chance to use iOS. Google needs Android to be more consistent among devices, feel safer when in the Android App Market, and maintain options in open usability while trying to bring smoothness to the interface. Google needs to work with main manufacturers to improve the experience, and try to move away from iOS especially now that direct comparisons can be made in Verizon stores.
Google needs to end the passive approach because if they don’t iOS, the closed system that simply works, will erase their lead, and leave them in the dust. The average consumer wants something that works, and doesn’t care about being open with all these various options. Android has one foot in the grave, but Google has the advantage of so many devices to have time to change.
It took a lot to get to where they are, but no one is going to wait for them to catch their breath, and rather will be trying to take advantage of their short comings. Being the number one target of other companies can be dangerous when your previous success was dependent upon targeting another company. This is an ever changing market, and the success of Android for the past year can crumble below them if they continue the current passive approach.
The views expressed above are my own, and do not reflect the views of AppAdvice as a whole.
