Why The iPhone 4S/5 Will Arrive Next Month...

The weeks before Apple’s annual WWDC are always ripe with speculation and this year is no exception. So while we wait for Apple’s next big thing (iCloud, OS X Lion), we thought we’d throw you this bone: one enterprising analyst believes the next iPhone is arriving next month, just like usual. Here is why his reasoning is quite sound. According to Seeking Alpha’s Andy Zaky, Apple’s own financials confirm it will offer the iPhone 4S/5 next month and not at the company’s annual music event in September as most believe. Zaky bases his argument mostly on recent comments made by Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer about the company’s third quarter operating expenses. Oppenheimer stated:

“We expect OpEx [operating expenses] to be about $2.5 billion, including about $255 million related to stock-based compensation expense.”

According to Zaky, Oppenheimer’s comments are code for, “Despite what you might hear on Wall Street, we expect the iPhone 5 to be released in late June or early July as planned.” Zaky calls Apple’s guidance numbers for the third quarter “most aggressive,” considering the general thought is the quarter won’t contain any new hardware releases. Typically, Apple increases its guidance numbers ahead of a big event, like the release of a new iPhone. He states:

Higher employee hours leads to higher selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A), which in turn leads to a higher OpEx (operating expenses) guidance on the quarter. Apple almost always guides for an aggressive OpEx number ahead of the holiday shopping season. The only other time Apple puts forth such aggressive OpEx guidance is ahead of a major product launch like the iPhone.

The second point of Zaky’s reasoning is most interesting. The analyst doesn’t believe Apple would delay a minor iPhone update, which many believe the next handset will be. Instead, Apple will release an iPhone 4S in June/July in black only, which will sit side-by-side with a white iPhone 4 model. This way:

The White iPhone 4 would merely become the lower end version of iPhone 4 / iPhone 4S family of devices. New White iPhone 4 customers won’t feel as bad about buying the device ahead of the new iPhone 4S than they would if Apple introduced a whole new revolutionary design. Especially if Apple decides to make the new iPhone 4S available only in black for a short period of time.

Finally, Zaky says the time is ripe for Apple CEO Steve Jobs to throw the world another “one more thing.” Since no one is really talking about a new iPhone for the summer, Jobs could surprise the world next month. This would be especially sweet for Jobs given last year’s debacle when an iPhone 4 was found sitting at a bar, months before its release. How sound are Zaky’s arguments? Keeping in mind, I’m not a numbers guy, it does seem interesting that Apple is announcing guidance numbers that are higher than normal. Sure, one can argue those numbers are for the run-up of OS X Lion or even iCloud. However, these guidance numbers are HUGE, which does suggest a hardware release. Second, waiting for a minor iPhone update doesn’t seem to warrant a three-month delay. Each previous iPhone model, after the first, was announced in June. Why wait until September? I’m in the camp that believes Apple will only delay the next iPhone if it is a radical departure from the current model. Since all signs point to a modest update, perhaps Zaky is onto something. Apple could release an iPhone 4S in June and sell it alongside the iPhone 4 through June 2012. At that point, a major iPhone update could be released for summer 2012. Finally, Apple knows how the rumor game is played. With nearly everyone NOT expecting an iPhone next month, wouldn’t that be the perfect time for the company to announce one? Imagine seeing Jobs onstage and ready to walk off, only to tease the audience with “one more thing.” Given the CEO’s continued health problems, it would be an amazing and brilliant moment. It would also show the world Jobs can still surprise. No one really knows with 100 percent certainty when the next iPhone will hit. However, until we know for sure, playing the rumor game is fun. What do you think? Leave your comments below.  

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