Who Wins? App Store Or Android Market?
May 31, 2011
The App Store now controls 59 percent of the global app market, according to a new Research2Guidance report. Apple’s app share has dropped 22 percent since 2008, mainly due to the introduction of the Android Market. However, it will be the next two years that determines who will lead for years to come.
When the App Store debuted in 2008, it reinvented an app market that was small by comparison. (Does anyone remember when Handango dominated?)
Before that year was complete, Apple controlled 81 percent of a market that saw 18 total app stores. In 2009, the App Store led with 79 percent (35 stores). In 2010, that share dropped to 57 percent (57 stores).
(Note: The market share is being measured by the number of free and paid downloads an app store generates per period.)
Today, the number of app stores has jumped to 58, while Apple’s share is up slightly to 59 percent.
According to Research2Guidance, Apple’s dominance will be further tested during the next two years. Assuming Apple can slow down its market share loss, it will be “difficult for other players to overtake Apple for a long time.”
They state:
There are two main effects that narrow down the time for competitors to catch up.What do you think? Will Apple maintain its market lead for apps or will Android take over? Leave your comments below.Even though Apple’s competitors might be able to push Apple’s market share down to less than 40% by 2015 (assuming same market share drop as within the last two years), Apple will still keep the “heavy-downloaders” from the early days for a long time.
- Mass market effect: Smartphone penetration will reach 50% in most of the developed countries by 2014/2015. The more smartphones become a mass market phenomena the less app downloads a new user will add.
- Lock-in effect of downloaded apps: The more apps a smartphone user has downloaded and the more money he has spent on those apps, the less likely it is for him to switch his mobile platform and, in the case of Apple, to put aside his iPhone, iPod Touch or iPad.
