How strongly could the iPad Pro outsell the Surface Pro 4?
Recently, KGI Securities Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicted that Apple will sell between 2.4 and 2.6 million iPad Pro devices during the holiday fourth quarter of 2015. According to Business Insider, RBC Capital Markets is issuing a more conservative estimate of 1 million devices per month, for a total of approximately 1.7 million iPad Pro devices sold during the fourth quarter. The analysts predict that the iPad Pro will continue to sell at a million units monthly for the first three months after the device’s November launch. That puts total units sold by the end of January at a total of three million. RBC also estimates that Apple will make $200 in profit from each iPad Pro, with total revenues of $2.4 billion.
Those numbers alone may not sound very impressive, and may even be confusing in the wide range between Kuo’s estimate and RBC’s. Consider this, however. Even if RBC’s lower estimate is right, Apple will have $2.4 billion in total revenue on the iPad Pro by the end of January, a three-month period following the device’s launch. Microsoft’s Surface line of tablets generated $888 million in revenue during its fourth quarter (measured between May and July), so Business Insider points out that the iPad Pro “is already two thirds of the size.”
I have some serious concerns about these numbers, though. Since the numbers reported from Microsoft cover from May to July, they give no indication of how well the Surface tablets will perform during the holiday buying season. It’s almost like comparing apples to lemons, no pun intended. Personally, I think the iPad Pro will outsell the Surface Pro 4, but I’m not convinced it will be the landslide that Business Insider’s prediction would make it out to be.
