One in 10 current iPhone owners is likely to buy an Apple Watch, according to a new report from Morgan Stanley. This would translate into first year sales of around 30 million units for Apple’s upcoming wearable device, according to Business Insider.
Morgan Stanley bases these numbers on initial iPad sales. When the Apple tablet was first introduced in 2010, 14 percent of iPhone buyers made a purchase. At the same time, 7 percent of iPod owners bought one of the first-generation devices.
Our 30M Apple Watch unit estimate in CY15 [Calendar Year 2015] is at the high end of consensus and arguably still conservative. Street estimates run the gamut,with most ranging between 10M and 30M units in the first year. We believe looking at penetration into the Apple installed base yields the most realistic assessment of demand potential of the Watch. Our 30M unit estimate implies 10% penetration into Apple’s 315M iPhone 5 or newer installed base exiting 2014, which is lower than iPad penetration of 14% in its first year.
Earlier this week, Apple released the WatchKit toolset for developers so they can begin to design apps for the Apple Watch. The WatchKit SDK is part of the iOS 8.2 beta, which can be downloaded by registered developers from the Developer Center.
First announced back in September, the Apple Watch is slated to hit the market sometime early next year.
See also: Apple’s partner chipmakers reportedly ‘gearing up’ production for Apple Watch, A new reports claims to peg down pricing for the entire Apple Watch line, and ‘Historical implications’ were weighed when creating the Apple Watch says Ive.