Apple iPhone shipments could drop below 200 million in 2016

The new estimate is from Ming-Chi Kuo and was first reported by AppleInsider. The KGI Securities’ analyst said he is forecasting that Apple will ship between 85 million to 95 million handsets in the first part of the year. In the second half of 2016, he believes the company’s shipments will total somewhere between 105 million to 115 million units.

That puts Apple on the path to ship between 190 million and 210 million iPhones during 2016. But Kuo says that number is “likely” to come in below 200 million.

For comparison, Apple shipped 232 million iPhones during 2015.

Kuo noted three possible reasons for the drop in shipments. Along with the rumored “iPhone 7” dual-camera system underwhelming buyers, he believes the demand for larger display handsets is slowing down. Also, because the newly launched iPhone SE doesn’t offer a new form factor, its impact won’t be significant.

And new data from analytics firm Localytics backs up that premise. After the first weekend of sales, the new model only garnered 0.1 percent of the iPhone market as measured by device adoption.

For comparison, the iPhone 6 grabbed 2 percent of the market after its first weekend on sale.

That information isn’t exactly a surprise. I don’t think anyone really expected massive lines at Apple Stores for the new model. Apple was catering to buyers who wanted a modern handset with a smaller, 4-inch screen. And those types of users aren’t the early adopters who usually line up on launch weekend anyway. The iPhone SE is a long-haul play to help fill out the iPhone lineup, similar to the iPad mini.

Interestingly, Localytics noted that the 9.7-inch iPad Pro faired better in its first weekend on the market, posting similar numbers compared to the iPad Air 2 launch in 2014.